Free Agency Overview: What the future looks like for the Patriots

The Patriots are officially in rebuild mode. Tom Brady is gone, Kyle Van Noy is gone, Jamie Collins is gone, and at the time this was written, the team has under $1 mil in salary cap space. But, this doesn't mean they're going to blow it up, trade Gilmore, and #TankForTrevor. Bill Belichick doesn't tank and you shouldn't want him to tank because that means you're wasting a year of the greatest coach of all time. This is what you call, rebuilding while still being competitive.

It appears they are trying to get younger, the team was ranked as the oldest team in the league last season. I mean, there wasn't much they could do to bring everyone back anyways because they are so low in cap. Kyle Van Noy went on to sign a 4-year deal worth $51M contract from the Dolphins. Jamie Collins signed a 3-year $30M contract with the Lions, and Elandon Roberts signed a 1-year deal also with the Dolphins (Contract info not known). I believe they're all gone because of either age or cost, or both. Collins is over 30, Van Noy is closing in on 30, and Roberts was more of a cap casualty considering he was a captain last season he's only 25 years old.

The most shocking move the Patriots made was franchise tagging guard Joe Thuney. Thuney was expected to reset the guard market with a big-time deal this offseason, after being one of the best guards in the league last season. But, it seems to be that after the team found out Brady was moving on, they made the decision to keep the offensive line intact. Franchise tagging Thuney ate up most of the cap space they had left, taking up over $14M until either they agree on an extension or he is traded. If he were to be traded, it would result in no dead cap penalty whatsoever, so it's very doable if they were to want to go down that path. But, reports suggest that they want to keep him around long term. Extending Thuney would save over $6M in cap.

The team did, in fact, bring back some vets. They were able to sign safety Devin McCourty to a 2-year $23M contract, with $17M guaranteed. They also were able to get back special teamer and captain Matthew Slater for around $2.6M. I believe these guys were essential for Bill to bring back because, with Brady's departure, you're going to need some leadership in the locker room. Slater and McCourty bring that leadership.

Here's who else they've brought in (so far):

• DT Beau Allen (28): 2-Years $7M, $3.5M Guaranteed

• FS Adrian Phillips (28): 2-Years $6M, $3M Guaranteed

• OLB Shilique Calhoun (28): 1-Year $1.5M, $250,000 Guaranteed

• WR Damiere Byrd (27): 1-Year, $1.3M, $600,000 Guaranteed

• QB Brian Hoyer (34): 1-Year, $1.05M

• DE Brandon Copeland (29): 1-Year, $1.04M, $137,500 Guaranteed

There's a couple of things to note from these signings:

• None of them are long term commitments. The most anyone is signed for is two years. Meaning they're either on prove it deals or they don't plan to keep them long term, or perhaps both.

• They could've signed these guys to longer contracts to help save money for this season, but they decided not to. Giving them even more cap flexibility next offseason.

• The youngest player they brought in is 27 years old. That's not much younger than they already were.

What these moves are telling you is that these guys aren't going to be here very long, unless they were to exceed expectations. The majority of the players they're going to bring in will be through the draft. This is going to be a transition year.

The Patriots have a total of 12 draft picks this year

• 1st round (23)

• 3rd round (87)

• 3rd round (98)

• 3rd round (100)

• 4th round (125)

• 5th round pick (172)

• 6th round (195)

• 6th round (204)

• 6th round (212)

• 6th round (213)

• 7th round (230)

• 7th round (241)

As of the time this was written, the Patriots may have less than $1M in cap space pending a move (Which needs to be done because it'll cost over $2M to sign the draft class). They have over $100M in cap space NEXT offseason. Now, it isn't totally accurate now because due to the fact that contracts will be up for players such as Thuney and Hightower who have been marked as extension candidates, and players like David Andrews, James White, and JC Jackson who will be due for new contracts after next season. Bringing a number of those guys back could put big dents into that $100M, but also gives them the freedom to do whatever they want in free agency. With the 12 draft picks this season, the extra cap space next season, and the high number of older players that are expected to move on after next season, you'll have a completely new team and the rebuild is underway. This season, they are rolling with some cheap free agents and a ton of rookies as a transition year. Then next year, with the possible departures of older players, the extra cap space, they'll have the freedom to pay some big-named free agents, while also drafting more young guys next draft as well. After that, (Pending on how well we draft) the team is in really good shape.

Now, what about the quarterback position? Tom Brady is obviously gone, so now we're left with Jarrett Stidham (23), Brian Hoyer (34), and Cody Kessler (26). As far as other veteran QBs go, there isn't much left at all. Teddy Bridgewater signed with the Panthers, Phillip Rivers signed with the Colts, and Drew Brees resigned with the Saints. Cam Newton was released from the Panthers after they failed to find a trade partner. Problem is, he's taken a beating over the last couple seasons and missed all of last season with an issue with his throwing shoulder. After teams requested medical records for Cam, there wasn't much interest in a trade by any team, that's a huge red flag. Jameis Winston is available after Tampa Bay signed Brady. Winston is coming off a year where he had 30 TDs and 30 INTs, he later had eye surgery in the offseason. They had multiple QB coaches come into Tampa and no one has been able to get him going. There's talent there, but he's a bad INT waiting to happen. Lastly, there's Bengals QB Andy Dalton. A lot of rumors were going around during Brady watch about Dalton being a good fit in New England. Since Brady left, that all got quiet. There hasn't been much noise about Dalton lately, even with the Bengals expected to take college QB Joe Burrow with the #1 pick in the draft. Dalton is also carrying a $17M cap hit, so that can't be helping considering the terrible season he just had. Multiple Patriots reporters such as Jeff Howe and Greg Bedard have suggested that the Patriots do NOT have any interest in Cam Newton, Jameis Winston, and Andy Dalton (Thank god).

There have been a lot of good reports about Jarrett Stidham over the last few months. Reports suggesting that the team is very happy with his progression during last season. He had a very good preseason performance, showed poise, good pocket awareness, good arm strength, and good accuracy. Even more, reports suggest that he's improved greatly in the last couple of months of the offseason. So how does the team really feel about Stidham? Their actions in the draft will tell us everything.

Scenario 1 - They draft a QB with their 1st round pick

This is, in my opinion, the worst possible scenario. No matter who they pick, if they pick a QB in the first round, it means they either 1: They have no plan, 2: they don't think Stid is the guy and they're scrambling, or 3: They know for sure this QB they're about to draft is the guy they want to take over. It's much different than drafting a guy in the later rounds. Stidham was a 4th round pick. If you pick a QB with such a good valued pick like a first-rounder, he has to start, he has to be the guy. You can't waste a first-round pick on a guy to just get beaten out for the starting job by a 4th round pick if Jarrett were to eventually win that job. You have to give the job to the first-round pick QB, there's no other choice.

Scenario 2 - They draft a QB in the later rounds

I'm much more in favor of this. This scenario means that they do like Stidham, but aren't convinced he's the guy. So they draft another QB somewhere in the 3rd-5th rounds as competition for Stidham, may the best man win the starting job. Either way, you get your next guy.

Scenario 3 - They don't draft a QB

This is also a good scenario because that means the team is confident that they have the next guy. It's Stidham's job to lose and Brain Hoyer is there just in case things were to really go south with Stidham.

If I had to guess, scenario 2 is most likely to happen. I personally want Scenario 3 to happen because that means we have the next guy and we can just focus on building the team around a young QB on his rookie contract. But I would not complain one bit if scenario 2 were to happen if it means we get the next guy out of it.

Conclusion

I think this team is in much better shape than people are giving it credit for. Patriots fans need to realize that it's no longer super bowl or bust. We are now living closer to normal football fans now, just not completely because as long as Bill is the coach, this team will be competitive each and every year. I wouldn't expect a 5-11 record season, but I wouldn't expect a 14-2 record season either. I would expect a 9-7 to 12-4 range record season (Obviously depending on how well they draft). I wouldn't expect a super bowl run this season, but next season and seasons beyond have the potential to be fun.