The Patriots are in Unprecedented Territory: 2020 Offseason Preview

The Patriots are in unprecedented territory. They are starting their off-season prior to the divisional round for the first time this decade, and first time since the 2009 season when they were blown out at home 33-14 thanks to the sixth seed Baltimore Ravens. However, after that game, there weren't headlines stating the dynasty is over because, to be frank, it really hadn't started yet. But this year, this off-season for the New England Patriots, will decide whether or not the dynasty is truly over or if this season was just a rare misfire.

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How about we start by taking a look at the nineteen possible players who were on the Patriots roster this past season but could end up hitting the open market.

(UFA) QB Tom Brady (43 years old)

(UFA) WR/ST Matthew Slater (34 years old)

(UFA) WR Phillip Dorsett (27 years old)

(UFA) RT Marshall Newhouse (31 years old)

(UFA) G Joe Thuney (27 years old)

(RFA) G Jermaine Eluemunor (25 years old)

(UFA) C Ted Karras (27 years old)

(UFA) C James Ferentz (31 years old)

(UFA) DT Danny Shelton (27 years old)

(RFA) DT Adam Butler (26 years old)

(RFA) DE Keionta Davis (26 years old)

(UFA) LB Jamie Collins (30 years old)

(UFA) LB Shilique Calhoun (28 years old)

(UFA) LB/FB Elandon Roberts (26 years old)

(UFA) LB Kyle Van Noy (29 years old)

(UFA) CB/ST Justin Bethel (30 years old)

(UFA) FS Devin McCourty (33 years old)

(UFA) FS/ST Nate Ebner (30 years old)

(UFA) K Nick Folk (35 years old)

Wow. There could be a lot of turnover when we see the Patriots hit the field in Week One of the 2020-21 NFL season but I don't see many challenging contracts's arising for Bill Belichick and the Patriots front office.

The biggest challenge will be retaining the linebacker core that dominated on the defense this past season. KVN, Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts, and Shilique Calhoun are most likely going to hit the open market as unrestricted free agents this March and they won't be cheap players to keep around. Van Noy built off of a very solid 2018 season and achieved a career-high in sacks, tackles for loss, and QB hits. Collins had an incredible reunion with the Patriots this season. He posted a career-high in sacks and interceptions while being one of the "boogeymen's" top players. As for Elandon Roberts, he may be one of the most reasonable options to keep around for the foreseeable future. He only found himself starting three games for the team at linebacker and didn't put up impressive numbers in the time he was given. Just one sack in 202 snaps. If the Develin injury is severe enough, maybe the Patriots were impressed enough to have him start there until they can find an upgrade at the position, but Roberts could sign one of those one-year "prove it" deals Belichick seems to dish out. Not much to dive in to with Calhoun, but he did see a career-high 266 snaps in 15 games in 2019. He could sign a reasonable contract and get some more playing time.

Danny Shelton and Adam Butler were two of the most underrated defensive players for the Patriots this season. Between the two of them, they posted nine sacks, ten tackles-for-loss, and fifteen QB hits through all sixteen games in 2019. Danny Shelton had a great resurgence season after a somewhat disappointing 2018 season but could be in line for a reasonable payday from either the Patriots or another DT-needy team. I would like to see him stick around for 2020 and anchor the middle of the DL. Adam Butler, what else is there to say? In just two starts, this guy proved what he can be in this league. As an RFA, I would completely expect the Patriots to retain Butler. If they didn't the wouldn't be addressing one of their biggest offseason needs.

Other than the linebackers, the special team unit may take some hits if the front office is unable to keep around All-Pro Matthew Slater, standout mid-season pickup Justin Bethel, and the always improving Nate Ebner. With the loss of Joe Judge, these players walking in free agency could really hurt the value of the Patriots special teams unit that kept them in so many games this past season. Definitely got to lock up some of those players.

After a weak start to the season, the offensive line really recovered and one of the main reasons for that was the play of All-Pro (2nd team) Joe Thuney who will likely get an enormous amount of money this offseason. For the Patriots to retain Thuney, they will likely have to pay upwards of 10-million to even 15-million and outbid some cap-flexible teams like Miami, New York (Jets), or Houston. Thuney is truly one of the biggest and most reliable anchors of the Patriots offensive line and him walking in free agency would be a huge loss for a team that hopes to keep a forty-two-year-old QB under center next season. Aside from Thuney, another notable name that could hit the open market is Ted Karras. Karras was thrust into the spotlight after David Andrews was hospitalized with blood clots in his lungs. This didn't spook Ted though, he was ready for the spotlight. In fifteen starts this season, Karras allowed just one sack, six pressures, and five QB hits. A very impressive 2019 season for a player we all thought would struggle throughout the season. With his good play, Karras could find himself getting upwards of $5-million in free agency, but I would expect the Patriots to retain him with the future of Andrews still unknown.

The possible turnover at wide receiver will be the biggest situation to monitor this offseason (outside of Brady). Players that are under contract for next season include Julian Edelman, Mohamed Sanu, N'Keal Harry, Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski, as well as two practice squad players Quincy Adeboyejo and Devin Ross. The only real wide receiver who was could leave New England this offseason is Phillip Dorsett. Dorsett got off to a very strong start in 2019 and looked to be the next player who would make a big-time leap forward when the team needed it the most. However, after his 95 yard/two-touchdown performance on opening night, Dorsett only caught 25 more passes and collected just 302 yards with three touchdowns. There are clearly many better options at depth receiver than Dorsett. The front office could target the likes of Randall Cobb who they showed interest in last offseason or possibly even look for reunions with familiar faces Danny Amendola or Chris Hogan. In the trade market, they could shift their focus to the speedy Albert Wilson who is currently a part of the division-rival Dolphins. The Patriots could also look to improve the position in the draft and use their first-round pick on yet another wide receiver. When looking at realistic options, Penn State speedster KJ Hamler comes to mind, TCUs Jalen Reagor could be an interesting get, or they could look in the direction of Clemson wideout Tee Higgins.

Next up? Tight end. Man do the Patriots need to get a big, physical tight end in the offseason this year. Matt LaCosse, Ben Watson, and Ryan Izzo had their respective moments this year, but none of them will ever be close to filling the void Gronkowski left when he retired. The biggest get the Patriots could possibly acquire this offseason is unrestricted free agent Austin Hooper but he is bound to get a big payday from a team that can afford him. Unless Brady takes yet another pay cut, Hooper is an unreasonable target. Some reasonable additions that could be an upgrade at tight end include Eric Ebron, Tyler Eifert, Hunter Henry, or Darren Fells. There are a lot of names the Patriots could target to fill the void at tight end this free-agent period, but what about the draft? Iowa's Albert Okwuegbunam could be a nice addition in both the passing and blocking game, but may end up being a little bit of a reach in the first round, Vanderbilt product Jared Pinkey struggled this season but is an intriguing option in the early rounds. However, Notre Dame product Cole Kmet may be the safest pick. Whatever the Patriots elect to do to address the tight end position will be interesting, we can all just hope it'll be an upgrade from this disappointing 2019 campaign.

Ah yes, let's address the major question mark, "what will the Patriots do at quarterback?" This is definitely going to be the biggest decision the Patriots face this offseason. If you keep Brady around for another couple years, at market value, you most likely take away the chance to surround him with the weapons he needs to succeed. But on the other hand, if you let him walk, who is going to make this team a contender? Who would make this team better than it would be with Tom Brady? Well, you aren't going out there and trading for Mahomes or Watson, your best option may be to bring in a "bridge" quarterback until either Stidham or a draftee is ready to make this team good again. Some of those "bridge" options could include potential trade target Andy Dalton, free agent Case Keenum, or even a younger option in once Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. If the Patriots were to decide to draft Brady's heir, keep a close eye on Georgia product Jake Fromm. He seems to be the most "ready" NFL quarterback in this year's draft. If the Patriots were to look to the later rounds, keep an eye on names like Utah State's Jordan Love, Washington's Jacob Eason, or Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts.

I've had discussions with the other podcast members, and I've come up with the idea a two-year, $50-million contract would be ideal for Tom Brady. Even though he is asking for market value (probably around $30-million), I don't see Belichick paying him any higher than market value. He won't be the guy who is convinced a soon forty-three-year-old quarterback deserves a $30-million contract even if his name is Tom Brady. But if the Patriots were to keep Brady around on an average salary of $25-million, that would leave them with a reasonable amount of salary cap to go out and add some talent around Brady and really make a push for another championship run.

Well, that's really all I wanted to cover in my first article on this page. This offseason will be one of the more interesting, to say the least, lets all just hope that Tom Brady is our quarterback when we step on the field for the first time during the 2020-21 season.